Briefing Paper

Briefing Paper 196 (2016)   

Security in the Baltic Sea Region:
activation of risk potential

Publicerad 8.6.2016

Katri Pynnöniemi & Charly Salonius-Pasternak
The Finnish Institute of International Affairs

Ladda ner PDF (802 Kb)

A change in the Baltic Sea regional security situation has already taken place and is having direct and indirect impacts on the countries in the region.

Potential risks to stability in the Baltic Sea Region have been activated, although they are not yet, and hopefully never will be actualized in the form of open military conflict.

Russia’s self-perception as a target of Western aggression is a way to legitimize assertive foreign policy towards the West in general and to continue military posturing in the Baltic Sea Region, where both the risks and possible gains for Russia are the greatest.

Considering the full-spectrum approach to conflict and the web of relationships that exists throughout the Baltic Sea Region, it is possible to conclude that beyond a certain point, all Baltic Sea littoral states will not only be impacted but drawn into a conflict occurring in the region.