Shell Global Scenarios to 2025

Marina Congress Center · 30.08.2006 00:00 - 00:00

Jeremy Bentham
Vice President, Global Business Environment, Royal Dutch Shell plc.

Commentary by
Dr. Tapani Vaahtoranta
Director, The Finnish Institute of International Affairs

Dr. Tarja Cronberg
MP, Chairwoman of the Green League

Q&A session chaired by
Jyrki Saarikoski
Journalist, YLE, The Finnish Broadcasting Company

For 30 years, Shell has pioneered the development of Global Scenarios to help identify major business risks and opportunities. These scenarios are not forecasts but efforts to understand the possible interplay of different types of change. The new Shell Global Scenarios highlight three different ways in which market incentives, the quest for security, and aspirations to social justice and cohesion could interact during the next two decades.

In the three scenarios – entitled ”Low Trust Globalisation”, ”Open Doors” and ”Flags” – the economic globalisation process proceeds along three widely different paths. International relations also differ significantly in the scenarios, as does the nature of international cooperation around the common challenges of peace, international security and economic development. The future energy scene will be heavily influenced by the different combinations of market, geopolitical and social forces.

Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 have been presented in Washington together with IIE (Institute for International Economics), in London in cooperation with Chatham House, in Copenhagen together with DIIS (Danish Institute for International Studies), to the Dutch Government and to the European Commission.

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