An article titled The Belarusian Revolution: Sources, Interim Outcomes, and Lessons to Be Learned written by FIIA Programme Director Arkady Moshes and Senior Research Fellow Ryhor Nizhnikau was published in the quarterly journal of Demoratizatsiya.
The article combines insights from literature on revolutions and nonviolent protests with empirical analysis on recent developments in Belarus. The authors argue that structural conditions were the cause of the revolution and that organizational shortcomings of the opposition as well as the international context helped the regime to survive. The authors see that external actors, such as Russia, could prevent the revolution from achieving its goals.
The publication is available from this link.