Summary

As the Kremlin believes that the global economic downturn is increasing the trend towards greater regionalism, the strategic conclusion is to strengthen Russia’s position as the centre of its “own region” – post-Soviet Eurasia. 

In order to enhance its geopolitical posture in the ex-Soviet area, Russia has been pursuing a twotrack policy: it is buying up assets from, and giving out loans to, its distressed neighbours on a massive scale. 

Several forces appear to be working at cross-purposes with the Kremlin’s ambitions: 1) the state of Russia’s own economic system; 2) the wiliness and cunning maneuvering of Moscow’s “allies”; and 3) the growing competition on the part of the other centres of power – the European Union and China. 

Ultimately, the Kremlin’s desperate efforts to turn Russia into a geopolitical leader of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are likely to be frustrated by Russia’s lack of a coherent long-term strategy and by its socio-political system’s dearth of appeal.