Working Paper 90
After the re-run of the parliamentary election on 1 November 2015, it is certain that Turkey will again be ruled by the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) one-party government. Based on this premise, Toni Alaranta's study provides a future-oriented analysis in the form of three scenarios: 1) an authoritarian Islamist state; 2) a consolidated liberal democracy; and 3) the dissolution of the Turkish state.
FIIA Analysis 6
The upsurge in Russia’s foreign political and military activity should be understood as a reaction to several internal and external setbacks that the Russian system has suffered in recent years. As a result, the Russian leadership has switched on a crisis mode that legitimises exceptional measures in both foreign and domestic policy. The latest FIIA Analysis has been co-authored by Veera Laine, Toivo Martikainen, Katri Pynnöniemi and Sinikukka Saari.
How the Paris agreement is perceived in the public eye has consequences for later events – in terms of good and bad publicity, political pressure, momentum, and hope. In more concrete terms, it will have impacts on countries’ political opportunities to strengthen their national contributions, as well as on the credibility of the UN climate regime as a whole, Senior Research Fellow Antto Vihma argues in a FIIA Briefing Paper.
FIIA Analysis 5
The inaction of the UN Security Council with respect to the Syrian crisis has generated widespread aversion. Scholars of international law have, however, debated whether the Security Council could be legally obliged to act in respect of a mass atrocity crisis. Although this emerging position is controversial, it shows that the argumentation in connection to Security Council inaction is toughening up through increased resort to hard law. Senior Research Fellow Katja Creutz analyses the discussion concerning the legal obligations of the UN Security Council.
Briefing Paper 180
The situation on the Korean Peninsula remains highly unpredictable and continues to pose a major threat to regional stability and global security. Geo-political and geo-economic competition prevents the neighbours of North Korea from forming a united front with or without the US. New confidence-building measures, such as those launched by South Korea, only offer a glimmer of hope for rapprochement in the longer term, Jyrki Kallio and Bart Gaens argue in a new Briefing Paper.
The form of warfare Russia employed in Ukraine in 2014, often called hybrid war, has been aimed at defeating the target country by breaking its ability to resist without actually launching a full-scale military attack. Hybrid war is built on the combined use of military and non-military means, employing basically the whole spectrum of a state’s policy inventory. In a new FIIA Report, András Rácz asks whether the Russian hybrid war is a universal warfare method deployable anywhere.
Charly Salonius-Pasternak & Jarno Limnéll
The scope of the global climate policy is changing towards the post-2020 situation and the stringent regulation of carbon-intensive activities. A more ambitious climate policy is needed because global climate change shows no signs of abating – on the contrary, it seems to be worsening. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one of the solutions associated with the success of the EU’s emissions trading scheme. The latest FIIA Briefing Paper by Jarkko Levänen examines the prospects of Carbon capture technologies as a part of the EU’s climate policy.
Arkady Moshes examines the challenges faced by a war-torn Ukraine in the latest FIIA Briefing Paper. The military conflict in the eastern part of Ukraine is the main factor determining also the internal political situation in the country. On the one hand, as long as the conflict calls for national consolidation and strengthens the understanding that only a reformed Ukraine may hope to endure, the war should drive the transformation. On the other hand, the conflict poses a major impediment to the changes, not only because it is a drain on resources, but even more so because it tempts Ukraine to blame its own inaction on “objective difficulties”.
András Rácz, Sinikukka Saari
András Rácz & Arkady Moshes
Anna Kronlund's Working Paper focuses on the topical debates on the war-making powers of the US Congress and the President. President Barack Obama’s actions in relation to Libya (2011), Syria (2013), and more recently the "targeted” actions against ISIL in Iraq and Syria, have raised discussions about the powers of the President as the Commander-in-Chief vis-à-vis the powers of Congress. If and when should the President seek congressional authorization for the use of US armed forces?
Juha Käpylä & Harri Mikkola
Thu 18.2.2016 at 10:00-11:30
By invitation only
Tue 23.2.2016 at 9:30-11:30
Once a month
Breakfast Briefings deal with topical EU affairs which have implications for Finns and Finland.
The Center on US Politics and Power at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs will organise 3rd Helsinki Summer Session on US policies on August 30 - September 2. Please, see the Call for Papers to apply.
Adjunct Professor (Docent), Senior Research Fellow at the Institute Antto Vihma has written an article together with Umut Turksen: "The Geoeconomics of South Stream Pipeline Project". The article was published in the Journal of International Affairs, Columbia University.
Carrie Weintraub, 2.2.2016
With 99% of votes reported, the Iowa caucuses have favored Ted Cruz for the Republicans and have Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in a deadlock. The caucuses have also furthered the campaigns of Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, but have caused an end to the Presidential dreams of Democrat Martin O'Malley and Republican Mike Huckabee.
The European Union research programme focuses on the EU's global and regional role, including the internal dynamics of the Union. The main research themes are the EU's external relations and institutional development.
The EU's Eastern Neighbourhood and Russia research programme studies the EU's eastern environment with a special focus on Russia's domestic, foreign and security policy. In particular, the programme concentrates on political developments in the region and the process of the Eurasian integration. It also studies international relations in the EU's eastern neighbourhood and the relationship between the region and the EU.
The Global Security research programme approaches global security challenges within the framework of broad security. The programme seeks to understand the global trajectories of security that have significance for the European and Finnish security environments. The issues approached include the prospects for global governance systems, changes in the major power structure, significant factors in functional and regional security and insecurity, the role of the transatlantic relationship in world politics, and the different dimensions of the European security policy.
The aim of the Center on US Politics and Power is to provide research and expertise on the US global role and its foreign and domestic policy. The Center works in conjunction with the Global Security Programme at the FIIA and was established in 2013. FIIA's US research is supported by the Jane and Aatos Erkko Foundation.