Climate change and Finland’s security of supply

FIIA research project “Climate change and Finland’s security of supply” studies how climate change and its mitigation affect Finland’s security of supply, and how to prepare for these effects. The project is conducted in its entirety by FIIA. The primary funding comes from the National Emergency Supply Agency (NESA), which also participates in the guidance of the project.

Climate change threatens the stability and safety of societies across the world. It causes indirect chains of effects, for example by endangering livelihoods, increasing forced displacement and aggravating conflicts. At the same time, effective mitigation of climate change requires broad, system-wide changes. These may lead to so-called transition impacts, which affect international relations, security policy and the economy. Transition impacts are highly relevant for the security of supply for small countries dependent on international trade, such as Finland.

The project produces situational awareness of the compounding transition impacts of climate change on security of supply. It also produces in-depth analysis of the risks facing the most important value chains for Finland. The research is based on existing literature, scenario work and analysis of effect chains. The project also seeks concrete means of forecasting and preparing for the impacts of climate change regarding the security of supply in a comprehensive security model. This work is based on risk analysis models and cooperation with actors in the security of supply and preparedness sectors. The project will produce a final report on situational awareness and the impacts related to security of supply, FIIA publications, as well as a forecasting tool that can be applied for practical work.

At FIIA, the project is led by Leading Researcher Emma Hakala. The research team consists of Postdoctoral Fellow Helmi Räisänen and Research Professor Antto Vihma. The project starts in September 2023 and ends in July 2026. It is a part of the Center on Climate Politics and Security (CLIPS).

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