In 2024, elections will be held in Russia, the European Union, and the United States. The elections will carry implications not only for the domestic politics of these three polities but also for the international arena, including the war in Ukraine.
While the Russian presidential election lacks any democratic credibility, Vladimir Putin’s confirmation may encourage him to pursue an even more aggressive military policy. However, this would still be a domestic political risk, and Putin’s primary expectation is that Western aid to Ukraine will wane.
The European Parliament elections are expected to result in a surge of far-right parties, but the EU’s decentralized power structures and consensus-based procedures make sudden political changes unlikely. Enlargement policy will be high on the EU’s agenda in the next legislative period.
In the US, the presidential and congressional elections will see a clash between two very different visions for both domestic and foreign policy. The consequences will be drastically different depending on the outcome of the elections.